SPOKANE COUNTY, Wash. — No matter who wins in November, Eastern Washington’s 5th congressional district will have a new US Representative for the first time since 2005 now that Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is not seeking reelection.
Multiple people threw their hands into the ring, but it is now down to just two candidates: Republican Michael Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy.
The district seat has historically been held by candidates who have followed a pattern of holding the position for numerous years.
“If there was a chance that Democrats could take the seat, this would be it,” said Whitworth University assistant professor of political science Aaron Hitefield.
Experts said it is a safe Republican District, but the party lines have changed over time.
“We know that House races are what we call low information contests,” Hitefield explained. “A lot of people don’t know a lot of information about the candidates. People rely in partisanship more and you have to rely as a candidate on voters who would traditionally turn out to vote in a house race.”
Rep. McMorris Rodgers is currently one of two Republicans from Washington’s ten representatives in the House. Her decision to not run for re-election spurred a crowded race during the primaries. Its final results were Michael Baumgartner with 28.50% of the vote and Conroy with 20.86%.
Hitefield said the winner of these congressional races often is the one with the most funding.
At the time of this report, Baumgartner’s campaign has around $640 thousand in contributions whereas Conroy’s campaign has around $230 thousand.
“If you are not getting people to donate, you are not getting personal vote,” Hitefield said.
Hitefield thinks Baumgartner’s biggest challenge will be separating himself from the MAGA movement and pulling Republican voters from the same margin as McMorris Rodgers. For Conroy, Hitefield believes the challenge will be running on a record she has yet to build.
Both candidates bring different types of experience to the table. Conroy brings prosecution experience whereas Baumgartner has spent more time at the local level as the Spokane County treasurer.
Voting starts October 18 and runs through November 5.
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